It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
